Wold's Theorem

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Wold’s Decomposition Theorem states that any weakly stationary process, $Y_t$, can be written as:

$Y_t = D_t + \sum_{j=0}^{\infty} \psi_j \varepsilon_{t-j}$

  • $D_t$ is deterministic (here taken to have zero mean).
  • The stochastic term is an MA($\infty$) in innovations $\varepsilon_t$.
  • $\psi_0=1$ and $\sum_{j\ge 0}\psi_j^2<\infty$.

RMSE (AR vs MA(K)):

Max |difference|:

Series: AR(1) vs MA(K)

Difference at each period |AR − MA(K)|

RMSE vs K (1 … Kmax)