ARMA Model

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An Autoregressive Moving Average model \( \text{ARMA}(p, q) \) combines autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) terms. In its most common form, this model is described as:

\( Y_t = c + \phi_1 Y_{t-1} + \cdots + \phi_p Y_{t-p} + \epsilon_t + \theta_1 \epsilon_{t-1} + \cdots + \theta_q \epsilon_{t-q}, \)

where \( \{\epsilon_t\} \) is a white noise process with zero mean and constant variance.

For the model to be valid, the series must not have a unit root; in other words, it must be wide-sense stationary.

These models are highly useful for modeling and forecasting time series that exhibit linear dependencies, and they are widely applied in fields such as economics, engineering, and natural sciences.

Simulated Time Series

Estimated Coefficients for AR and MA Model


Autocorrelation Function (ACF)

Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF)



Residual Analysis and Characteristic Polynomial Roots


Autocorrelation Function (ACF)

Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF)


Residuals Histogram

Characteristic Polynomial Roots